AUD/JPY Bearish Momentum Accelerates as the RBA Likely to Leave Cash Rate at 1.50%

AUDUSD – Technical Analysis for Australian Regulated Brokers

Japan – Final Manufacturing PMI

On Monday, at GMT 12:30 a.m., the Markit released Japan’s final manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) figure. It measures the level of a diffusion index by surveying around 400 purchasing managers in the country.

Businesses are the first to react to changing economic climate. The manufacturing PMI is calculated based on survey questions covering employment, production, price levels, new orders situation. Also, it is based inventory conditions. Hence, Australian regulated brokers consider this data to be a leading indicator of the overall economic health of the country.

Last month, the Japan’s final manufacturing PMI reading came out at 52.5. The forecast for this month was set at a reading of 52.5 as well. The actual final PMI reading came out at 52.5 in the end.

Australia – Cash Rate

On Tuesday, at GMT 4:30 a.m., the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released the official cash rate. It is the interest rate that major Australian banks and financial institutions pay to borrow funds held at the RBA.

Short-term interest rates are the primary factor in the valuation of the Australian Dollar against other major currencies. So, binary options investors pay close attention to any changes in the official cash rate.

The RBA left the cash rate at 1.5% in their last meeting. The forecast for this month is that the RBA will leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.5% for the time being.

AUD/JPY Forecast

AUD/JPY Analysis for Australian regulated brokers - Sept 7 2018The AUD/JPY remained bearish since July 19, when it formed a large bearish outside bar. Over the last few weeks, the pair fell by around 410 pips to the 79.70 level and formed two downtrend lines. After reach the 79.70 level, it found a strong support and started a minor retracement. However, it got rejected near the second downtrend line. Over the last two days, it fell sharply and currently, it is testing the support around 79.70 level once again.

The Japanese final manufacturing PMI reading came out exactly as expected, same as last month, at 52.5. On the other hand, analysts are expecting the Australian cash rate to remain unchanged at 1.50% as well. Hence, the direction of the AUD/JPY will largely depend on trader’s sentiments instead of shift in economic fundamentals. Therefore, if the AUD/JPY closes below the support near 79.70, it would likely attract additional bearish momentum in the market.

Hence, Australian regulated broker should look out for trading opportunities below this major support level around 79.70.

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Asif worked as a prop trader for almost a decade, and later he managed trading operations for one of the largest foreign exchange strategy developers in Europe. Currently, he works as a trading consultant to several brokers and writes on various tech and financial topics. You can reach him at contact@asifimtiaz.com

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Asif Imtiaz

Asif worked as a prop trader for almost a decade, and later he managed trading operations for one of the largest foreign exchange strategy developers in Europe. Currently, he works as a trading consultant to several brokers and writes on various tech and financial topics. You can reach him at contact@asifimtiaz.com

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