AUD/CAD Breaks Below Uptrend Line Amid Forecast of Slowing Inflation in Australia

AUD/CAD  Forecast & Technical Analysis

Canada – Wholesale Sales

On Tuesday 23,  the Statistics Canada has released the month-over-month wholesale sales data. It measures the changes in the total value of sales. The change is made by the wholesale sector in Canada over the past month.

Go Markets investors consider the wholesale sales figure to be an important leading indicator of the Canadian economy. Because retailers tend to place more orders to wholesalers when they feel optimistic about their retail sales. Hence, an increase in the wholesale sales signals a growing GDP in the future.

Last month, Canadian wholesale sales increased by 0.6%. However, this month, analysts are expecting it to increase by 0.1%.

Australia – Consumer Price Index

On Wednesday 24, at GMT 1:30 a.m., the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the quarter-over-quarter consumer price index (CPI) figure. It measures the changes in the price of goods and services bought by Australian consumers in the last quarter.

The consumer price index is primarily used by the Australian central bank to measure inflation. Any significant change in the CPI often makes the Forex market extremely volatile. Also, inflation at the retail level has a big influence on the central bank’s future monetary policy. Hence, it is considered by binary options traders to be a leading indicator of the Australian economy.

Last quarter, the Australian consumer price index increased by .05%. The forecast for this quarter is an increase of 0.2%.

AUD/CAD Forecast

AUD/CAD daily chart - 23 April 2019

The AUD/CAD broke above the downtrend line on March 11. Since then, it has climbed up by around 165 pips. However, over the last few days, it started a bearish retracement. Earlier today, the AUD/CAD broke below the immediate uptrend line. So far, it fell by around 35 pips.

The Australian Consumer Price Index will likely increase at a lower pace this month compared to last month. On the other hand, analysts are expecting the Canadian wholesale sales to increase by 0.1% over the last month. We believe it would set a bearish fundamental outlook for the AUD/CAD this week. Therefore, if the AUD/CAD continues to trade below the resistance near 0.9575, it would likely attract additional bearish momentum in the market.

Hence, Australian binary options traders should look out for trading opportunities at the current market price. As long as the pair trades below the major resistance level around 0.9575.

Asif worked as a prop trader for almost a decade, and later he managed trading operations for one of the largest foreign exchange strategy developers in Europe. Currently, he works as a trading consultant to several brokers and writes on various tech and financial topics. You can reach him at contact@asifimtiaz.com

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Asif Imtiaz

Asif worked as a prop trader for almost a decade, and later he managed trading operations for one of the largest foreign exchange strategy developers in Europe. Currently, he works as a trading consultant to several brokers and writes on various tech and financial topics. You can reach him at contact@asifimtiaz.com

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