GBP/AUD Likely Turn Bullish Amid Better Than Expected Claimant Count Change in the UK

United Kingdom – Claimant Count Change

On Tuesday, at GMT 7:00 a.m., the UK’s Office for National Statistics released the Claimant Count Change figure. It measures the changes in the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits during the previous month.

It is the first fundamental indicator of the month that confirms the employment situation in the UK. so, binary options traders consider this to be an important indicator of consumer spending in the coming months. This is because consumer spending is highly dependent on labour market situation in the country.

Last month, the UK’s Claimant Count Change figure came out at 39,500. The forecast for this month was set at 78,800. The actual figure came out much lower, at 28,100. 

Australia – Westpac Consumer Sentiment

On Wednesday, at GMT 12:30 a.m., the Westpac Banking Corporation in Australia released its consumer sentiment index. It measures the changes in the level of a diffusion index by surveying 1,200 consumers in the country.

Binary options investors consider the consumer sentiment to be one of the leading indicators of future consumer spending. Because it makes up a large portion of the Australian GDP. Hence, the large sample size of the Westpac consumer sentiment survey makes it one of the best leading indicators of the overall Australian economy.

Last month, the Westpac consumer sentiment index reading came out suggesting an 18% increase. This month, it increased by 11.9%.

GBP/AUD Forecast

The GBP/AUD remained in a sustained downtrend since March 2020. However, by end of July, it broke above the downtrend line. Over the last few months, it mostly traded within a narrow range between  1.7485 and 1.840, with an intermediary pivot zone near 1.8175. Yesterday, the GBP/AUD tested the 1.8175 level but failed to close above it. Currently, it is trading just below this pivot zone.

The Australian Westpac Consumer Sentiment grew at a much rate compared to the previous month. On the other hand, the UK’s Claimant Count Change came out much better than the forecast. We believe it would set a bullish fundamental outlook for the GBP/AUD this week. Therefore, if the GBP/AUD closes above the resistance near 1.8175, it would likely attract additional bullish momentum in the market.

Hence, Australian binary options traders should look out for trading opportunities above this major resistance level around 1.8175.

Asif worked as a prop trader for almost a decade, and later he managed trading operations for one of the largest foreign exchange strategy developers in Europe. Currently, he works as a trading consultant to several brokers and writes on various tech and financial topics. You can reach him at contact@asifimtiaz.com

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